Will the crisis in Russia in 2019
The forecast published by the World Bank on whether the crisis in Russia will be in 2019 is more positive for the country, unlike other world powers. The reason for this is that experts call the North American policy, which imposes restrictions not only on Russia, but also on other countries, including its neighbors in the continent.
Economic crisis: expert opinion and latest news
While psychics are making plans for the future, World Bank experts predict a global economic crisis due to the possible start of trade wars and a slowdown in global GDP growth. Thus, the report, which was presented by the Chief Economist of the World Bank Shantayanan Devarajan to the World Bank, said that in the current year economic growth is expected to decline in a number of countries:
- Japan - by 0.7%;
- China - by 0.4%;
- EU countries - by 0.3%.
In Germany, the forecast for industrial production growth was 0.3%, and as a result, there was a drop of 1%.And this is not the only case in the Old World - the French economy is also starting to lose ground.
“Protectionist threats thicken clouds over economic prospects. If it comes to trade wars, the consequences can be devastating, ”says Devarajan.
Not the last reason for alarm is the policy of the United States - America imposes restrictions not only on Russia. For example, the change in duties on aluminum and steel has already weakened relations with Europe and Canada. A slight growth of the economy by 0.4 points - from 2.3% to 2.7%, is unlikely to save from negative consequences in the event of the start of trade wars with China, Canada or Mexico.
According to the latest news, referring to the head of Russia, the loss of trust between countries can lead to unpredictable and colossal changes that will lead to a crisis that “the world has not yet encountered”. The national leader said this at the time of the SPIEF (international economic forum in St. Petersburg), held in late May
As for Russia, then, the experts' opinion is that, despite the growth of GDP in the past year, this also cannot exclude the possibility of undesirable trends.However, the World Bank does not put the country in last place - last year, the budget deficit was halved, and this is a surplus (for the first time in seven years) to 441 billion rubles. Accordingly, GDP growth is also expected, and the current policy and the so-called “fiscal rules” will become the guarantor of the country's financial security in the run-up to the global economic crisis.
Putin: real incomes of the population grew
As positive measures taken by the Russian government, the WB notes actions in relation to the regions. For example, instead of issuing new loans, restructuring of public debts is being carried out, which has brought additional 430 billion rubles to the subjects, which will be used to improve the well-being of the population.
Next is the growth of revenues from oil exports. When drawing up the budget, the price was set at $ 40, and now black gold is trading above $ 70, and therefore revenues will reach 2.75 trillion rubles, which is significantly more than the expected amount.
The growing economy attracts foreign investors - in the first quarter, the share of holders of sovereign Eurobonds rose to 42.7% (previously 38%), and securities fed.loan - up to 34.5%. As noted by Alexander Razuvayev, who occupies the post of director of the Alpari analytical department, investors have ceased to fear sanctions against sovereign debt and are confidently buying up securities.
Another factor that speaks in favor of the Russian economy is the decline in consumer inflation. At the end of last year, as reported by the latest news, it turned out to be lower than the regulator planned, and amounted to 2.5%. In turn, this had a positive effect on real incomes, and, as President Putin stated during the live broadcast: “Salaries increased by 1.9%, and real incomes of the population by 3.8%.” Thus, it can be said that the country has seen a steady increase in the income of Russians.
Regional wage arrears, data for May 1:
|Federal District||Amount, million rubles|
The fact that the country has overcome the crisis, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said this spring: “Inflation remains low, the ruble is stable, and banks are reliable. "Today," it can be stated that "to a large extent, our economy has overcome the consequences of the crisis of 2014-2015."