Why airline tickets rose in price in 2018
Back in April 2018, the rise in price of airline tickets began in Russia, and prices continue to grow at the moment. Experts figured out why this happened: the changes are related to the quotes of the foreign exchange market and the increase in the cost of fuel. So how much more expensive flights have become, and is it worth in the near future to expect a return to the previous values?
Increase fuel surcharge
In the spring of jet fuel, which serves as fuel for aircraft with heat engines, has risen in price by 20%. In this regard, the airline decided to increase the fuel surcharge, included in the ticket price. The first such change was made by Aeroflot, which on July 26 increased the amount of fuel surcharge by 200 rubles (for economy and comfort class flights) and by 400 rubles (for business class flights). Despite the fact that not all Russian air carriers have yet taken a similar measure, in general, the representatives of the sphere are unanimous in their opinion: tickets will definitely become more expensive.If the trend for the high cost of jet fuel is maintained and consolidated, in winter the price of tickets may increase by as much as 10%.
Managers of online services for booking tickets “Biletix” and “OneTwoTrip” confirmed that the ticket prices of carriers do become higher, and Internet organizations also do not plan to compensate for the increase in fuel surcharge at their own expense. It becomes obvious that the obligation to pay the premium will fall entirely on consumers. A similar trend can be traced not only in Russia, but also in the rest of the world - already several foreign airline companies, including Qatar Airways, have stated that they will increase the cost of fuel surcharges from 20 to 40 euros on international flights (from 1600 to 3150 rubles, respectively).
If in other countries the rise in price of air tickets in 2018 is due to the seasonality of demand for petroleum products, the dynamics of world prices and the possible increase in industrial costs, in Russia this also adds to the tax maneuver in the oil industry. In 2016, as part of this reform, excise taxes on aviation fuel increased by 30%.
Today, changes in this area are also continuing, in connection with which the government and, in particular, the Federal Antimonopoly Service have to closely monitor both prices and sales volumes on the oil exchange.The agency took control of the situation, and therefore called on oil companies not to infringe the rights of consumers to sell as much fuel as is required by air carriers, as well as to stabilize prices for aviation kerosene at a level similar to the beginning of June 2018. According to the Federal Air Transport Agency, since this month the fuel has risen in price especially significantly - the price per 1 ton has averaged 50,800 rubles. However, in some regions, the situation turned out to be even worse - for example, in Kamchatka Tigil, a ton of jet fuel had to pay 102,000 rubles without VAT!
For the time being, the “North Wind”, “Azur Air” and “UTair - passenger airlines” adhere to the previous pricing policy. Here they consider that the same amount of fuel surcharge should be supported by all carriers. However, management companies still note that if the premium is increased throughout the country, then they will have to do it.
In general, experts give mixed predictions for the future. Pavel Permyakov, President of the UTair passenger unit, believes that costs will eventually stabilize at the current level, but by the end of the year carriers will feel the costs even more than they do now.This will lead to an increase in ticket prices by 2-4% compared with the prices of the end of 2017. Obviously, this will have a negative impact on the air transport industry - according to Permyakov, the growth rate of traffic will decrease from 10% to 5%. Partially agree with him the expert of the transport market and the employee of the HSE, Fedor Borisov. He believes that in the autumn of air carriers may be forced to raise prices so as not to incur losses. As a result, this will lead to a noticeable underload of the aircraft.
The fall of the ruble
Another reason why plane tickets became more expensive in 2018 is the instability and instability of the national currency. Because of this, the cost of international destinations rises first. The fact is that all payments between participants of the air transport market are made in dollars and euros according to the internal rate of the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Since the global currency market is constantly changing, all this affects the price of shipments. For example, if in one week the dollar is 63.5 rubles, and next week it is already 68.5 rubles, then it will turn out that by the rate of the last week they added as much as 7.8%! As a result, the cost of tickets will increase by the same value.The most significant difference will be felt by those people who want to order air travel on an expensive route.
The head of the OneTwoTrip online service Leonid Ryaboshtan advises not to postpone the purchase of air tickets for a long time, if such an opportunity exists. Having gone abroad now, a person can save a lot. Already mentioned Pavel Permyakov (“UTair”) agrees with his colleague in the industry. He notes that the situation in the airline business is directly dependent on currency fluctuations, because almost half of all the costs of companies (costs for fuel, spare parts, etc.) are tied to them. The instability of the national currency can lead to slower growth and shrinking the market.