The main directions of the budget policy of Russia for 2018
The main directions of the budget policy for 2018 remain the priorities developed and adopted by the Government of the Russian Federation in 2016. The transition to a 3-year budget planning period is aimed at a consistent and coordinated restructuring of the Russian economy. The task is to achieve macroeconomic stability, independent of fluctuations in energy prices.
Budget figures for 2016-2018
In 2016, managed to cope with the consequences of a sharp drop in oil prices and economic sanctions. For this reason, the 2016 conditions were taken as the basis for the calculation of indicators. In addition, the budget rules have been changed, according to which standards are calculated. The main provisions of the budget rules:
- fixing the level of oil prices;
- determination of the maximum amount of expenses.
For the entire planned cycle until 2020, the price for Urals brand oil is set at $ 40 per barrel.It is assumed to reduce the budget deficit annually by 1%.
The main parameters for budget allocations:
- the maximum amount of expenses;
- borrowing from the Reserve Fund;
- transfers to the Reserve Fund;
- priority funding of state programs.
.2017-2018 are a transitional period for increasing the share of non-primary industries in the structure of income and reducing revenues from the oil-producing sector.
Since the beginning of 2017, revenues earned from the sale of oil above $ 40 are directed to the Reserve Fund. The result was a smoothed correlation of the ruble exchange rate in response to fluctuations in the world oil price.
In 2017, the mechanism of the project management method tested on pilot projects (2018-2019) should be developed. Concentration of federal budget expenditures in several directions, increasing responsibility and control will help to avoid dispersion of financial resources.
Forecast for 2018
For 2018, the main areas of fiscal policy remain the reduction of inflation, the interest rate on credit, the activation of industrial production in the context of import substitution.
Economic forecasts suggest a resumption of global economic growth, the preservation of financial and economic sanctions.Under these conditions, the projected GDP growth in 2018 is 1.5%.
The main indicators of the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2018:
- the price of Urals brand oil is $ 40 per barrel;
- the average annual exchange rate of the ruble to the US dollar is 68.7 rubles;
- GDP growth rate (% by 2017) - 1.7%;
- inflation - 4%.
The structural problems of the economy persist for the entire planning period, including the year 2018, the main of which is the reduction of the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund, which covers the budget deficit.
The demographic situation makes it difficult to restructure: an increase in the number of people of retirement age with a natural decline in population. To ensure pension payments at the same level, there are two ways out: an increase in the tax burden or the redistribution of budget funds in favor of the FIU. Accompanying problems are low retirement age, an inefficient system of retraining and retraining, lack of conditions for increasing the mobility of labor force.
Mobilization measures of fiscal policy
From 2018, all state-owned companies (including Sberbank) are required to pay dividends of at least 50% of net profit. This will increase revenues to the state budget, make the stock market more attractive for investors.
Administration (control and accounting) of taxes will be improved.Creating information databases of taxpayers, goods will make fiscal instruments more flexible and efficient.
From July 1, all retail outlets must have cash registers connected to the Federal Tax Service system online.
From February 1, a system is introduced to track the movement of goods from the border to the final consumer in the territory of the EAEU countries, followed by the connection of other importers.
To stimulate investment activity there are:
- tax incentives for enterprises creating infrastructure in the Far East;
- reduction of tax burden (tax deduction) for new and modernized enterprises.
At the same time, a moratorium is imposed on the introduction of new benefits at the expense of local and regional budgets.
Budgetary allocations for 2018 are reduced by 2% with the exception of the mandatory ones: government debt service, transfers, international obligations.
Fiscal policy until 2020
Budget policy for the period 2018-2020. the goal is to complete the structural transformations of the economy, making it independent of market fluctuations in energy prices, attractive to external and internal investors, which will create conditions for sustainable growth.
The basic volumes of budget financing are calculated on the basis of the plan for 2017-2019. Accepted as a basis, they will be indexed to the actual level of inflation in the relevant period.
In 2017-2020 the base price for Urals oil is assumed to be 40 dollars per barrel. The limit of budgetary expenditures over the years is defined as the sum of oil and gas revenues, other incomes and the amount of public debt.
The main points of increasing the efficiency of budget policy:
- an increase in the share of deductions from the net profit of state-owned enterprises to 50%;
- equal, fair conditions for doing business;
- changes in the tax system in the oil and gas sector (increase in the mineral extraction tax with a decrease in customs duties);
- “Freezing” of the nominal amount of expenses for 2017-2019
The revenues of the Federal budget during 2018-2020 will decrease due to the persistence of low oil prices, reduction in production volumes, and depletion of reserves. The structure of the revenue side will change: the share of hydrocarbon exports will decrease, and revenues from other industries will increase.
The volume of non-oil revenues (64%) is planned to be obtained from own production: VAT, excise taxes, income tax.In the total amount of NNGD, the percentage of these payments over 3 years will be 52%:
- VAT - 35%;
- excises - 10%;
- income tax - 7%.
Stable inflation and prices will create the possibility of reducing the% NB rate. In turn, this will expand the possibilities of long-term lending to commodity producers of non-primary industries, will become the basis for sustainable economic growth.
Regional and local budgets
Subject budgets have been assigned tasks:
- increase the revenue base;
- cancel the benefits subsidized from the local budget;
- optimize costs.
The equalization of the revenue part will be made at the expense of transfers from the Federal budget, the source of which will be the redistribution of part of the profits.
Federal benefits are limited in duration (1, 3, 5 years) and will be transferred at the end of their validity to the regional level.
To stimulate economic growth in the regions of the Russian Federation, it is envisaged:
- maintaining the level of subsidies for 3 years with high rates of tax growth;
- 20 billion rubles / year for the highest rates of tax growth.
In the years 2018-2020. a regulatory framework for doing business is being created:
- electronic document management;
- common information primary sources;
- uniform classifiers.
From 1.01. 2019 new tax rules should come into force:
- no increase in tax burden on bona fide payers;
- an increase in the size of rental payments for all primary sectors with a simultaneous decrease in customs duties;
- legislative definition of the list of non-tax payments and the procedure for their collection.
The correctness of the strategic direction is evidenced by the statistical reporting data for the first half of 2017. Compared with the corresponding period of 2016, GDP growth was 1.7%. The main growth factors are the increase in domestic demand and business activity.